Facebook Could Hit 1 Billion Users This Summer, But Its Social Market Share May Be Declining

Two interesting Facebook reports surfaced today, one displaying the estimated growth of the social network and the other showing that competitors may be eating up market share.  Facebook states that they currently have “more than 800 million” active users, 50% of which log on to Facebook everyday.

Facebook To Hit A Billion?

Digital firm, iCrossing, took a look at the most recent 800 million user count and created a scientific estimate on when the 1 Billion user mark would be obtained.  The results show  the billion user barrier would be broken mid-August:

When generating this data, iCrossing used linear regression from 2008 til December 2011 to predict future numbers.  While Facebook’s initial growth was exponential, post 2008 growth has been linear, making it possible to calculate the mid August date.

Facebook Lost Social Share In UK

As the previous chart infers, Facebook continues to expand to more and more users, but the growth rate is decreasing. The Telegraph reported that Facebook lost substantial ground in the social networking market within the UK.  This December Facebook was down more than 7% of the overall social market share.  The linear growth and high established user rate are bound to see declines as competitors like Google+ emerge.

For more information see the full iCrossing report or the Telegraph article.

Related Topics: Channel: Strategy | Facebook | Facebook: Statistics | Social Media Marketing | Statistics: Popularity & Usage | Top News


About The Author: is the Director of Marketing for Cypress North, a company that specializes in social media and search marketing services and web-based application development. He has been in the Internet marketing industry for 6+ years and specializes in Social Media Marketing. You can also find Greg on Twitter (@gregfinn) or LinkedIn.

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  • http://ciarannorris.co.uk Ciaran

    I used what sounds like a very similar method to predict Facebook reaching one billion a couple of years ago. I was wrong.

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