If eMarketer’s latest media spending forecast is accurate it will mean that by 2018, there will be more digital ad revenue than TV revenue. The internet would become the largest single medium in the US advertising world.
The following table (created by me) shows the real dollar values behind the market share percentages in the chart above for PC, mobile and TV advertising in the eMarketer forecast:
The forecast doesn’t assume, as you can see, a loss of TV revenue. Rather, it assumes massive growth in mobile and some transfer of desktop spending to mobile. By the end of the forecast period (2018), total digital revenue has grown to more than $82 billion.
This year, total U.S. digital revenue will approach $50 billion. Accordingly, in four years digital will add another $30+ billion, according to eMarketer.
While this scenario is not impossible to imagine, I’m skeptical that mobile advertising will be more than twice PC ad revenue by 2018.