• Pat Grady

    “The truth is that targeted advertising is too large of a business to be shut down because browsers ban third-party cookies.” — All targeted advertising won’t be shut down. Can you estimate what % would?

    “In theory, if all third-party cookies were blocked, a huge portion of this industry would disappear overnight.” — I know an accurate number isn’t possible, it’s not that black and white from a technology aspect, but can you be more specific than “huge”?

  • http://www.facebook.com/tim.mayer Tim Mayer

    Pat
    Based on initial analysis for standard campaigns, the Firefox changes will add an additional 25% volatility to measurement ad targeting creating an overall impact of 48%. We published this number and other impact numbers on this change in imedia recently.
    http://blogs.imediaconnection.com/blog/2013/04/10/firefox-changes-cookie-policy-version-22-not-accepting-third-party-cookies/

    Tim

  • http://twitter.com/websta_ Websta.co

    James, really good article. Apple has killed mobile flash and now cookies. Google’s inroads with Chrome for mobile will also have a big factor I believe.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesANGreen James Green

    Tim (above) gives a good estimate of an impact of about 48%.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesANGreen James Green

    Thank you. :-)

  • http://twitter.com/JamesANGreen James Green

    Great piece in imedia…

  • bdot

    With adblockers and other programs where you can change the source code before seeing the webpage, I didn’t know people still saw ads. Well other than in youtube videos. Even then, people don’t actually see them as they immediately close them.

  • Pat Grady

    Numbers appear to apply to % of 3rd party types that would be affected.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tim.mayer Tim Mayer

    Pat

    Exactly first party cookies are unaffected by this change and have improved persistency over 3rd party cookies in general

  • http://www.facebook.com/tim.mayer Tim Mayer

    Thanks James!

  • Pat Grady

    Right, that’s my point. To say “targeted advertising would be shutdown” is to imply these stats apply to both 1st and 3rd party cookies, and they don’t.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesANGreen James Green

    First up let’s agree that we don’t know exactly how much blocking third party cookies will effect the industry. However, blocking third party cookies will radically effect first party retargeting or “site retargeting” – even though this is based on first party data (ie first party cookies) because access to the biggest and most liquid media exchanges is based on the cookie that the exchange sets and is thus based on third party cookies. So it has very very large implications.

    I totally agree that alternatives will be found, but every single display ad campaign will be effected because you’ll no longer be able to measure reach and frequency and de-duplcate reach across a campaign. All of that requires third party cookies (e.g. DoubleClick).

  • http://www.facebook.com/theryanmiller Ryan Miller

    These changes also seem like they could shut down entire 3rd party campaign tracking and attribution companies overnight. Or at least trigger an arms race where these companies resort to using tracking methods that most (IAB) would rather not see used, out of desperation.