People used to talk about how pre-event search volumes could predict outcomes (e.g., presidential elections). Now, social media data are being used for the same purposes.
Last week, digital marketing firm MintTwist compiled and analyzed social media data to anticipate winners at last night’s Academy Awards. The firm looked at several factors:
- Twitter followers
- Facebook fans
- YouTube views and likes
- Past award performance
The published predictions list only covered the major acting awards and Best Picture. (My guess is that less prominent awards would have been somewhat harder to call.) Every one of the MintTwist predictions was accurate — save the big one. Here they are:
Unsuccessful “best actor” nominee and star of The Wolf of Wall Street Leonardo DiCaprio was the most buzzed about actor last night on Twitter and Facebook. His raw popularity probably skewed the best picture prediction.
Many of these outcomes had been anticipated by critics and commentators, without the benefit of social media analysis, for many weeks. Still, the success rate here is impressive even if social media were wrong on the big award of the night.