Social Media Predicted 80 Percent Of Big Oscar Winners

ellen-degeneres-oscars-600People used to talk about how pre-event search volumes could predict outcomes (e.g., presidential elections). Now, social media data are being used for the same purposes.

Last week, digital marketing firm MintTwist compiled and analyzed social media data to anticipate winners at last night’s Academy Awards. The firm looked at several factors:

  • Twitter followers
  • Facebook fans
  • YouTube views and likes
  • Past award performance

The published predictions list only covered the major acting awards and Best Picture. (My guess is that less prominent awards would have been somewhat harder to call.) Every one of the MintTwist predictions was accurate — save the big one. Here they are:

Social media oscar predictions

Social media oscar predictions

Social media oscar predictions

Social media oscar predictions

Social media oscar predictions

Unsuccessful “best actor” nominee and star of The Wolf of Wall Street Leonardo DiCaprio was the most buzzed about actor last night on Twitter and Facebook. His raw popularity probably skewed the best picture prediction.

Many of these outcomes had been anticipated by critics and commentators, without the benefit of social media analysis, for many weeks. Still, the success rate here is impressive even if social media were wrong on the big award of the night.

Related Topics: Channel: Social Media Marketing | Events | Oscars | Statistics: Social Media


About The Author: is a Contributing Editor at Search Engine Land. He writes a personal blog Screenwerk, about SoLoMo issues and connecting the dots between online and offline. He also posts at Internet2Go, which is focused on the mobile Internet. Follow him @gsterling.

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  • Guest

    So essentially all they did was figure out who had the most followers/likes and who was talked about the most on social media in recent times? That doesn’t sound extremely scientific – but I guess they managed to get most of the winners right. Would have been interesting if they had actually released this BEFORE the Oscars.

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