Forecast: Half Of Consumers Will Be Paying With Phones Or Wearables By 2018

According to a 2014 survey commissioned by the US Federal Reserve, 28 percent of smartphone users had made some form of mobile payment in the previous 12 months. New survey data for 2015 haven’t come out yet, but I suspect the number would be much closer to 35 percent.

Indeed, Retale released consumer survey data late last year that argued 43 percent of US smartphone owners used their devices to make in-store purchases. From there, it’s not a giant leap to Gartner’s recent forecast that in “mature markets,” 50 percent of consumers will be “using smartphones or wearables for mobile payments by 2018.”

Source: US Federal Reserve Board reports (March 2015)

Gartner defines mobile payments as “smartphone or wearables-based payments, branded mobile wallets from banks or credit card providers, and branded mobile wallets from retailers such as Starbucks.”

The final category I would call in-app payments, and this is the category that I see growing fastest. NFC-based in-store payments (e.g., Apple Pay, Android Pay) will catch on but take more time based on infrastructure requirements.

Another provocative prediction Gartner made was that by 2018, “75 percent of TV-style content will be watched through application-based services in mature markets.” Apple CEO Tim Cook made a similar statement when the company introduced the new version of Apple TV last fall.

About The Author

Greg Sterling

Greg Sterling is a Contributing Editor at Search Engine Land. He writes a personal blog, Screenwerk, about connecting the dots between digital media and real-world consumer behavior. He is also VP of Strategy and Insights for the Local Search Association. Follow him on Twitter or find him at Google+.